🌴 September in San Diego: Why the "Housing Crash" Headlines Don't Apply Here

Fall may barely register in San Diego, but the real estate market is definitely shifting. If you've been following the headlines lately, you've probably seen some version of this:

Home prices are falling. Inventory is piling up. Buyers are back in control.

There's some truth to that, but real estate is becoming increasingly local, and San Diego is behaving very differently than many other parts of the country.

Here's what the current market could mean for buyers, sellers and anyone considering their next move.

The National Market vs. San Diego

Buyers have gained leverage across much of the country, with some of the biggest shifts happening in parts of Florida and Texas.

Texas is now much closer to a balanced market, while several major metros have seen prices pull back from their pandemic-era highs. Florida is more mixed, but condo inventory in particular has climbed significantly in many areas.

There are a few reasons for the shift: a lot of new construction, higher carrying costs, affordability issues and slower migration into some of the markets that exploded during the pandemic.

San Diego has a different problem: we still don't have enough housing.

We have limited land, difficult geography, expensive construction and years of underbuilding. That doesn't mean San Diego home prices can never decline, but it does mean our supply and demand equation looks very different from markets where inventory has surged.

Right now, San Diego prices are holding relatively steady, inventory remains constrained and desirable homes that are priced correctly are still selling fairly quickly.

So if you've been waiting for a giant San Diego housing crash before buying, I wouldn't build your entire strategy around that happening.

San Diego Market Snapshot | September 2026

1. Prices are cooling, not collapsing.

In the second quarter, the median existing single-family home price in San Diego County was approximately $1,075,000, according to the California Association of Realtors.

More recent market data continue to show sale prices roughly flat to modestly higher than a year ago, even as some asking prices have softened.

That feels a lot more like normalization than a crash.

2. Affordability is still our biggest challenge.

Only about 17% of San Diego County households can currently afford the median-priced home.

C.A.R. estimates a household needs roughly $268,000 in annual income to qualify for that median-priced home.

That's a staggering number.

It's also why we spend so much time helping buyers look beyond the obvious financing options. For qualifying buyers, down payment assistance, seller credits, rate buy-downs and other programs can make a meaningful difference.

Buying a home in San Diego isn't easy right now, but "I can't put 20% down" does not automatically mean you can't buy.

3. Mortgage rates are still sitting in the upper 6s.

Thirty-year mortgage rates averaged about 6.67% in August.

Could rates come down? Absolutely.

Could they go back up? Also yes.

What I wouldn't do is put your life on hold waiting for the perfect interest rate.

When the opportunity exists, negotiating a seller-funded rate buy-down can sometimes lower your payment today instead of hoping rates eventually get where you want them.

And if rates drop substantially later, refinancing may become an option.

What This Means If You're Buying

This is actually a much healthier market for buyers than what we experienced a few years ago.

You're not necessarily competing against 20 offers anymore.

Depending on the home, buyers are once again negotiating things like:

• Closing-cost credits
• Repairs
• Rate buy-downs
• Price reductions
• Longer inspection periods
• Better overall terms

That doesn't mean every seller is desperate. They're not.

But buyers have options again, and that's a good thing.

If affordability is your biggest hurdle, there are also several assistance programs available to qualifying buyers through the San Diego Housing Commission.

And if you're just trying to figure out where to start, our San Diego Home Buying Guide walks through financing, offers and the buying process without all the real estate jargon.

What This Means If You're Selling

This market is much less forgiving of bad pricing.

A small change in the countywide median does not automatically mean your home lost value.

But buyers are paying attention.

Homes that are positioned correctly are still selling close to asking price. Homes that start too high tend to sit, reduce, sit again and eventually chase the market down.

I've said this before and I'll keep saying it:

Your first two weeks on the market are incredibly valuable.

That's when your listing is new, buyers are paying attention and you have the most leverage.

Don't waste that window testing an unrealistic price.

Thinking About Leaving California?

Here's where the national market shift gets interesting.

If you've considered relocating or purchasing an investment property outside California, many markets in Texas and Florida currently offer buyers considerably more negotiating power than San Diego.

More inventory and longer market times can create opportunities to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs and rate buy-downs.

But I would never recommend buying somewhere simply because "Florida is cheap" or "Texas is a buyer's market."

Conditions vary dramatically by city, neighborhood and property type.

And one major expense people sometimes overlook is insurance, which has become increasingly expensive in both states.

If you're considering a move, our team can help connect you with strong local agents in markets we don't personally serve.

Neighborhood Spotlight: Chula Vista

This month we're spotlighting Chula Vista, one of the largest and most diverse housing markets in San Diego County.

The median sale price is currently around $830,000, but that number only tells part of the story.

Chula Vista offers a huge range of housing.

Newer master-planned communities like Eastlake and Otay Ranch tend to command higher prices, with detached homes in some eastern Chula Vista neighborhoods easily reaching or exceeding $1 million.

Move west and you'll find more established neighborhoods, older homes, larger lots in certain pockets and often a much more approachable entry point for first-time buyers.

That's one of the things I like about Chula Vista.

You can find newer townhomes, traditional single-family homes, larger move-up properties and completely different neighborhood personalities without ever leaving the city.

We've helped a lot of clients make Chula Vista home.

You can read our full Chula Vista Neighborhood Guide or browse current San Diego homes for sale.

Have a Real Estate Question?

Whether you're wondering what your home is actually worth, trying to figure out whether buying right now makes financial sense, or simply planning a move six months or two years from now, we're here to help.

You'll get a straight answer from us, not a sales pitch.